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The Play: Meteorology Division
An eye to the sky
By Cheryl Hudak
In December 2009, Chesapeake CEO Aubrey McClendon was asked what he wanted for Christmas. Smiling up at snow-laden skies, he replied, “I’m getting it.”
Weather conditions have a major impact on natural gas demand and supply. Cold temperatures increase the need for space heating, which increases the demand for natural gas – and like most commodities, natural gas prices increase along with demand.
Chesapeake meteorologists Josh Darr, Mark Russo and Jon Davis
watch skies brighten over the Windy City. The company’s Meteorology
Division offices overlook downtown Chicago, home to major financial
and commodity exchanges.
During summer, hot temperatures call for space cooling with air conditioning. As a growing number of electrical utilities use natural gas to generate power, and as the nation’s population shifts toward the southern Sun Belt states, the summertime demand for natural gas is actually growing at a faster pace than winter demand.
Questions remain: how does a natural gas producer know how much of his precious resource will be needed, and where and when? What price will he get for it? Is there some way he can use the constantly changing price of natural gas to work for him, rather than against him?
Well, Bob Dylan was right when he said, “You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.”
You need several.
Chesapeake is the only independent natural gas producer to have a fulltime meteorology staff. The group’s expert predictions do more than warn employees to pull out those distinctive Chesapeake umbrellas; they translate into energy demand data that is used in the company’s financial risk management process and the hedging of natural gas production.
Located on the 23rd floor of a Chicago high-rise, Chesapeake’s Meteorology Division looks down through the clouds at a bustling city. The heads of its staff, however, are anywhere but in the clouds. They are constantly attuned to the vagaries of weather trends around the globe.
“Mark Russo and I worked in the weather group at CitiGroup/Smith Barney in the early 2000s,” said Jon Davis, Chesapeake’s Senior Meteorologist. “Our weather wires went to virtually all the major energy and agricultural companies. Aubrey McClendon received those reports and felt that our expertise could help the company with energy projections and hedging activities. In 2003, he approached me about leaving Citi, and I accepted and that’s how Chesapeake’s Meteorology Division began.”
Today meteorologists Mark Russo and Josh Darr round out the Chesapeake group. A fourth member of the weather team is Jayson Stock, who does Geographic Information Systems (GIS) mapping and analysis from his office at the company’s Oklahoma City headquarters.
The team provides Chesapeake’s hedging group with extensive data, forecasts and other energy-related, weather-sensitive information on a daily basis with conference calls each week – daily in extraordinary circumstances. They also produce a CHK Operations Wire that provides outlooks to alert the company’s field operations across the U.S. for potential hazardous weather conditions.
As specialists in what is called “applied meteorology,” the team studies the impact of weather on a publicly traded commodity – in Chesapeake’s case, natural gas.
Radar is one of the most identifiable tools
used in weather forecasting.
“Weather changes rapidly,” Russo noted, “especially in natural gas. We may make a two- to three-week forecast that can potentially cause dramatic fluctuations in the natural gas market.”
“The key is forecasting it before others see it,” Davis noted. “We spend a huge amount of time on independent research, building our own weather models and tools to do both short- and long-term analysis. We measure temperature impacts – and therefore natural gas demand – by considering the number of cooling degree days versus heating degree days.”
One thing they don’t predict is commodity price. They leave that to the company’s hedging team – McClendon, Marc Rowland, Chesapeake’s Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Jeff Mobley, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Research.
“We never talk about price, only demand,” Davis said. “I don’t think you can be a meteorologist and a trader. Others might disagree, but I think a trading position could bias your forecast.”
The company’s hedging team acknowledges the importance of the information provided by the meteorology group.
Surrounded by computer screens, the Chesapeake meteorology team
helps the company analyze weather trends that have a strong impact
on natural gas prices.
“We are price makers at Chesapeake,” Rowland said, “not price takers. We don’t just use hedging as a defense against price volatility – we use it for revenue creation. Since 2001 we have generated $4.8 billion for our company through hedging.”
Is it a bit daunting to make weather forecasts that affect the company’s profits? Heads nodded vigorously around the meteorology office, and the team agreed that missing a forecast is their greatest fear. “Of course you want to be right every time. You know the stakes are high. There are a few sleepless nights, but you learn your lessons and you don’t make the same mistake again.”
The Chesapeake weathermen find applied meteorology as exciting as tornado chasing. One series of memorable predictions took place in 2009. “Last summer was one of the coldest on record in the U.S., which the Chesapeake weather team forecast accurately months in advance,” Davis said. “Last fall, we thought our preliminary research indicated a likelihood for a colder than average period of time in early winter as well. So we made that forecast.”
Meteorologist Mark Russo studies a wall of weather
updates to prepare the CHK Operations Wire, which
alerts the company’s field operations to possible
hazardous weather conditions.
He added that a cold early winter means more gas is used early in the season. “That sort of raises the fear factor,” Davis explained. “Because December is actually early in the heating season – so you will still have 75% of the heating season left to go before winter’s over. That fear factor can definitely affect prices.”
The group admitted to being a bit anxious after making the forecast. As it turned out, the frigid weather did affect natural gas demand in key population centers, which impacted usage, and ultimately natural
gas prices.
“You have no idea how glad we were to see that cold December.”
So was Rowland, who said, “Last year our meteorologists were accurate in their predictions for an early, cold winter, and we used the resulting price run-up to enter into quite a few hedges for 2010.”
Weather forecasts help keep field operations productive and safe
Although Chesapeake’s Meteorology Division was originally launched to provide weather information to support hedging decisions, its expertise has become a valuable resource for the company’s field operations.
Field operations personnel, keenly aware that extreme weather conditions can impact employee safety, production, drilling activities and pipeline construction, began to consult Meteorology about specific weather situations shortly after the group’s startup.
The historic hurricane season of 2005 and 2008 were case studies in how the nation’s energy supply remains at the mercy of Mother Nature.
The Polar Vortex affects conditions
around the globe.
“In 2008 we were developing maps forecasting how tropical storms and hurricane force winds from Hurricane Ike could affect our operations in Louisiana and East Texas,” said Meteorologist Josh Darr. “Operations people received this type of analysis to determine whether wind speeds will be high enough to lay down rigs as a precaution. That happened several times in the hurricane season of ’08 and ‘05.”
Today, Chesapeake has expanded from its early-day southern operations into northern climates in the Eastern and Western divisions. Those regions face greater exposure to wintry weather, snowstorms and extreme cold that can result in freeze-offs, drilling delays and safety issues
They will count on the company’s meteorologists to be their eyes on the sky.